Big East Preseason Look
Big East preseason poll| (Rank) Team | Points | Avg Pick |
| (1) West Virginia | 186 (18) | 7.75 |
| (2) Louisville | 172 (6) | 7.17 |
| (3) Pittsburgh | 127 | 5.29 |
| (4) Rutgers | 125 | 5.21 |
| (5) USF | 97 | 4.04 |
| (6) UConn | 80 | 3.33 |
| (7) Cincinnati | 41 | 1.71 |
| (8) Syracuse | 36 | 1.50 |
It's no surprise that West Virginia was picked to win the Big East in 2006. So much has been written about its 38-35 Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, and it single-handedly really has raised the credibility of the new-look Big East. I point to two other events of last season that enhanced the Big East's status:
- Rutgers' return to a bowl game, first since 1978.
- USF surprise blowout of conference favorite Louisville, who had been expected to "roll through" a weak conference
Now, West Virginia is deservedly in the national title discussion. It should be as strong as 2005, with top playmakers Steve Slaton (RB, 17 TDs, 1128 rushing yards) and Pat White (QB, 15 TDs, 57 % comp) returning along with 13 other 2005 starters.
With WVU getting so much attention, Louisville is now getting overlooked. But it shouldn't be, as long as QB Brian Brohm (19 passing TDs, 2883 passing yards) can recover from last year's season-ending injury. All-star RB Michael Bush (24 TDs, 1142 rushing yards) returns too along with 15 other starters. Louisville also gets West Virginia at home. With another home date against UMiami, it could threaten for a #1 ranking.
Pittsburgh picked at third is somewhat interesting, but it is clearer when one looks at the average pick. Pittsburgh and Rutgers virtually tied for third place. Both teams had very opposite 2005 seasons. Pittsburgh was expected to be strong, but floundered to a 5-6 finish, including a shocking loss to 4-7 Ohio that can be argued cost them a bowl game. Rutgers went a surprising 7-5 including a close bowl loss to Arizona State, 45-40. Pittsburgh will look to bounce back and Rutgers will look to continue their success.
If either team slips up, USF may slip in to finish in the top half of the conference. Last year's win over Louisville was probably the biggest win in the program's nine-year history. Because of its location in talent-laden Florida, USF is seen as a program with the potential to become a new heavyweight. It's anyone's guess when it will have that first big, breakthrough season. Getting to a bowl game last year was a flash in the pan.
UConn is treading water, but it started off 2005 well with two consecutive shutouts. It's the kind of confidence booster the defense needs in 2006. A solid defense can save a season.
Cincinnati and Syracuse are a few years away from competing for the conference title, but aren't complete pushovers. With solid nonconference success, bowl bids are the goal for these two.
5 September Games I'm anticipating
1) UMiami at Louisville Sat Sept 16th
Two years ago, Louisville blew a huge lead losing to Miami in Florida, its only blemish in an underrated 11-1 season. With a win, they would have been the fourth undefeated team behind USC, Auburn, and Utah. Since 2004, Louisville has joined the Big East and increased its profile. Meanwhile, Miami has not lived up to expectations, and with the Cane faithful getting restless, is in need of a big season. Lousville has the early advantage with the game in Kentucky.
2) UVA at Pittsburgh Sat Sept 02nd
Pitt gets an early opportunity to put last season's disappointment behind. Virginia will not be as strong as recent years giving the Panthers an opportunity to steal a win from an ACC team that will get better as the season progresses. This game will give insight into whether or not Pittsburgh will contend in 2006 and also into the caliber of second-year coach Dave Wannstedt.
3) Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Fri Sept 08th
The first Big East clash comes early. This is the only conference game before September 29th. A Cincinnati upset may signify more unpredictability to come.
4) Maryland at West Virginia Thursday Sept 14th
The only tough team in WVU's nonconference schedule. If it wants credibility in the national title race, West Virginia must produce a decisive win.
5) UConn at Indiana Sat Sept 23rd
If UConn can win this game, it could potentially be 4-0 before starting the Big East season. A win at USF and against Army could make it 6-0 before hosting West Virginia.
Final Thoughts
I'm disappointed that neither USF nor West Virginia scheduled quality nonconference opponents. USF plays I-AA McNeese State, FIU, UCF, Kansas, and North Carolina. It makes sense in the fact that they're all winnable, but only North Carolina poses a challenge. Ditto for West Virginia, who's only challenge is Maryland. It also plays Marshall, I-AA E.Washington, ECU, and MS State. Even if WVU goes undefeated, there will be the critics from the more competitive conferences arguing that their teams are more deserving because of a harder schedule. Such is the problem for the Big East. Credibility could be found by playing tough games outside of the conference, but this is not desirable. If six or seven of its teams make it to a bowl game in 2006, which is entirely possible, the Big East may take another step in enhancing its reputation. But achieving a reputation equal to the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, or Pac-10? Don't hold your breath.
posted by xcdannon @ 9:47 AM
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